美国版抖音Tiktok为什么被禁止，前景及市值分析 Why Tiktok was banned in USA

 

The clock is ticking down on TikTok in America.

A law that requires TikTok to find a new, non-Chinese owner or face a ban is scheduled to go into effect Sunday — and there is little indication the company is set to pull off a sale before then.

That means 170 million Americans could lose access to a platform they use to find entertainment, news and community, or even run a business, after TikTok became the first new platform in years to pose a real competitive threat to American social media stalwarts like Instagram and YouTube.

 

距离TikTok被关闭越来越近。

一项要求TikTok寻找新的非中国所有者或面临禁令的法律计划于本周日生效，没有迹象表明该公司将在那之前完成出售。

TikTok是多年来第一个对Instagram和YouTube等美国社交媒体巨头构成真正威胁的新平台，1.7亿美国人可能会失去他们用来寻找娱乐、新闻和社区，甚至经营企业的平台。

 

The Supreme Court on Friday upheld the law, bringing the ban one step closer.

But although the ban deadline is now just two days away, there are still many unknowns about what exactly will happen.

Will TikTok shut itself off entirely in the United States? That’s not what users or experts had expected, but one report indicated it may do just that.

Will the outgoing President Joe Biden administration provide direction? That’s not sounding likely.

周五，最高法院维持了该法律，使禁令更进一步。

但是，尽管禁令的最后期限现在只有两天了，但关于具体会发生什么，仍有许多未知因素。

TikTok会在美国完全关闭吗？这不是用户或专家所期望的，但一份报告表明，它可能会做到这一点。

即将离任的乔·拜登总统政府会提供指导吗？听起来不太可能。

英语日语学习交流答疑QQ群： 139025845

Will incoming President Trump intervene? If the list of expected attendees at his inauguration is any indication, it’s likely he’ll try.

Here’s what we know — and what we don’t — about the ban deadline day.

即将上任的特朗普总统会干预吗？如果他就职典礼的预期与会者名单有任何迹象，他很可能会尝试（因为TIKTOK美国负责人周受资是就职嘉宾之一）。

以下是我们对禁令截止日期的了解和不了解。

Will my app go away?

Experts had expected the app to be removed on Sunday from the Apple and Google app stores — which could face fines under the law for continuing to host TikTok after the deadline. That would mean anyone without the app already on their phones couldn’t download it, but existing users could continue accessing it, without security updates, until it eventually becomes glitchy or stops working.

 

我的应用程序会消失吗？

专家们曾预计，该应用程序将于周日从苹果和谷歌应用商店中删除——根据法律，在截止日期后继续托管TikTok可能会面临罚款。这意味着任何手机上没有该应用程序的人都无法下载它，但现有用户可以在没有安全更新的情况下继续访问它，直到它最终出现故障或停止工作。

2023年3月22日，人们聚集在华盛顿特区国会山举行新闻发布会，反对TikTok禁令。-据报道，白宫于2023年3月15日告诉TikTok应用程序，如果它继续由总部位于北京的科技公司字节跳动拥有，它将在美国被禁止。

They built careers on TikTok. Now they’re bracing for a possible ban

But a Biden administration official told CNN Thursday that the outgoing president plans to leave it to Trump to enforce the ban. “Our position on this has been clear: TikTok should continue to operate under American ownership. Given the timing of when it goes into effect over a holiday weekend a day before inauguration, it will be up to the next administration to implement,” the official said.

他们在TikTok上建立了职业生涯。现在他们正在为可能的禁令做准备

但拜登政府的一名官员周四告诉美国有线电视新闻网，这位即将离任的总统计划让特朗普来执行禁令。这位官员表示：“我们对此的立场很明确：TikTok应继续在美国所有权下运营。考虑到它在就职典礼前一天的假日周末生效的时间，将由下一届政府实施。”。

That could mean that, given Trump takes office the day after the ban takes effect, there would be no one to explicitly instruct app stores to remove the platform on Sunday, potentially leaving them to decide for themselves whether to comply.

But even if the app stores left TikTok alone, the company may decide to pull the plug itself. The Information reported Wednesday that TikTok was preparing to shut itself down entirely on Sunday and instead direct users to an informational page about the ban.

So, users should mentally and emotionally prepare to potentially lose access to the app starting Sunday, unless they want to download a VPN to get around the ban.

这可能意味着，鉴于特朗普在禁令生效后的第二天上任，没有人会明确指示应用商店在周日删除该平台，这可能会让他们自己决定是否遵守。

但即使应用商店不去管TikTok，该公司也可能决定自己退出。《信息报》周三报道称，TikTok正准备在周日完全关闭，而是将用户引导到一个关于禁令的信息页面。

因此，用户应该在心理和情感上做好准备，从周日开始可能会失去对该应用程序的访问权限，除非他们想下载VPN来绕过禁令。

Why TikTok was banned

The central allegation against TikTok is that the company poses a potential national security risk. US officials have worried that the Chinese government could pressure TikTok or its parent company, ByteDance, into handing over the personal information of its US users, which could then be used for Chinese intelligence operations or the spreading of Chinese-backed disinformation.

There’s no evidence yet that that has actually happened. Still, policymakers and security experts have said China’s national security laws make it a possibility — identifying a kernel of risk that fits into a broader anti-China narrative linked to issues including trade, human rights and authoritarianism.

Those concerns were renewed after a report in 2022 suggested US user data had been repeatedly accessed by China-based employees. TikTok has disputed the report. In recent years, the company says it made changes to how it handles US user data, including storing it in US-based severs owned by Silicon Valley tech company Oracle.

President Joe Biden signed a bill in April that required the platform to be sold to a new, non-Chinese owner or be banned in the United States.

 

TikTok为何被禁

针对TikTok的核心指控是，该公司构成了潜在的国家安全风险。美国官员担心，中国政府可能会向TikTok或其母公司字节跳动施压，要求其交出美国用户的个人信息，这些信息可能会被用于中国的情报行动或传播中国支持的虚假信息。

目前还没有证据表明这真的发生了。尽管如此，政策制定者和安全专家表示，中国的国家安全法使其成为可能——确定了一个与贸易、人权和威权主义等问题相关的更广泛的反华叙事中的风险核心。

2022年的一份报告显示，中国员工多次访问美国用户数据，这再次引发了人们的担忧。TikTok对该报道表示质疑。该公司表示，近年来，它改变了处理美国用户数据的方式，包括将数据存储在硅谷科技公司甲骨文旗下的美国服务器上。

乔·拜登总统于4月签署了一项法案，要求将该平台出售给新的非中国所有者，否则将在美国被禁止。

What’s Trump going to do?

Although the idea of a TikTok ban was born during Trump’s first presidency, he has since made a 180-degree turn and said he wants to save the app.

 

The complicating factor: the ban is set to go into effect one day before Trump takes office.

Trump had asked the Supreme Court to temporarily pause the ban’s implementation to give him time, as president, to negotiate a sale of TikTok. And sources familiar with his plans told CNN on Wednesday that he was weighing whether to delay the ban and preserve Americans’ access to the platform while he works on a deal.

TikTok CEO Shou Chew is set to be seated on the dais, alongside other leading tech CEOs, at Trump’s inauguration — perhaps a sign of just how serious the incoming president is about trying to save the app.

And with some in Congress now suggesting that TikTok might need more time to find a buyer, Trump could find support in trying to push off the ban to a later date. The law gives the president the option to extend the ban by 90 days, but triggering the extension requires evidence that parties working on purchasing have made significant progress, including binding legal agreements for such a deal — and TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, hasn’t publicly updated its stance that the app is not for sale.

 

特朗普会怎么做？

尽管禁止TikTok的想法诞生于特朗普的第一任总统任期内，但此后他做出了180度的转变，并表示他想拯救这款应用程序。

更复杂的因素是：该禁令将在特朗普上任前一天生效。

特朗普曾要求最高法院暂时暂停禁令的实施，以便他作为总统有时间就出售TikTok进行谈判。熟悉他的计划的消息人士周三告诉美国有线电视新闻网，他在衡量是否推迟禁令，并在他达成协议期间保留美国人访问该平台的权利。

TikTok首席执行官周受资与其他领先的科技公司首席执行官一起坐在特朗普就职典礼的讲台上，这或许表明这位即将上任的总统对拯救该应用程序有多么认真。

鉴于国会中的一些人现在表示，TikTok可能需要更多时间来寻找买家，特朗普可能会寻求支持，试图将禁令推迟到以后。法律赋予总统将禁令延长90天的选择权，但要触发延期，需要有证据表明参与购买的各方取得了重大进展，包括对此类交易的具有约束力的法律协议，而TikTok的母公司字节跳动尚未公开更新其关于该应用程序不出售的立场。

Is a sale still possible?

Even if the TikTok ban does go into effect, a sale of the app to a non-Chinese owner could restore access for US users.

A group formed by billionaire entrepreneur and former Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt and including “Shark Tank”-famous investor Kevin O’Leary made a formal bid to buy TikTok from China-based ByteDance earlier this month. The group wants to buy TikTok’s US assets, albeit without the app’s beloved algorithm — which China has indicated it will not allow to be sold — and rebuild the platform with what they say would be a more transparent feed, and more user control over their data.

Chinese officials have also reportedly discussed the possibility of selling TikTok to X owner Elon Musk, whom they might consider the friendliest possible American owner. Musk and ByteDance have not commented on the reports; TikTok called them “pure fiction.”

是否仍有可能出售？

即使TikTok禁令真的生效，将该应用程序出售给非中国所有者也可能恢复美国用户的访问权限。

本月早些时候，由亿万富翁企业家、前洛杉矶道奇队老板弗兰克·麦考特（Frank McCourt）组成的一个团体，包括著名投资者“鲨鱼坦克”凯文·奥利里（Kevin O'Leary），正式出价从中国字节跳动（ByteDance）手中收购TikTok。该集团希望收购TikTok的美国资产，尽管没有该应用程序备受喜爱的算法——中国表示不允许出售该算法——并重建平台，他们说这将是一个更透明的提要，以及用户对其数据的更多控制。

据报道，中国官员还讨论了将TikTok出售给X所有者埃隆·马斯克的可能性，他们可能认为马斯克是最友好的美国所有者。马斯克和字节跳动没有对这些报道发表评论；TikTok称其为“纯粹的虚构”

McCourt told CNN on Thursday that while ByteDance’s bankers have confirmed receipt of his group’s offer, he expected the company was “waiting to hear what the Supreme Court does” before seriously engaging in any acquisition conversations. “But they haven’t told us to go fly a kite,” he said, adding that following the court’s ruling, “I hope we can have a robust conversation.”

But here’s the thing: Even if TikTok is sold and Americans can keep using it, it will in many ways be a different app. Because China is almost certain to block the sale of the algorithm(算法） along with TikTok’s US assets, the app’s “For You” feed will have to be rebuilt by the new owner — which will be no easy task. Many tech giants have already spent years trying to replicate TikTok’s algorithm without quite succeeding.

Spinning off an American-only version of TikTok could also mean the rest of the world has to download a new app to access US users’ content.

The bottom line is, until Sunday — and probably extending at least into next week — there may be more questions than answers for TikTok users about the app’s future.

麦考特周四告诉美国有线电视新闻网，虽然字节跳动的银行家已经确认收到了该集团的收购要约，但他预计该公司在认真进行任何收购谈判之前“正在等待最高法院的决定”。“但他们没有告诉我们去放风筝（试探舆论），”他说，并补充说，在法院的裁决之后，“我希望我们能进行一次强有力的对话。”

但事实是：即使TikTok被出售，美国人可以继续使用它，它在很多方面也会是一个不同的应用程序。由于中国几乎肯定会阻止该算法与TikTok的美国资产一起出售，该应用程序的“For You”提要将不得不由新所有者重建——这绝非易事。许多科技巨头已经花了数年时间试图复制TikTok的算法，但没有完全成功。

推出仅限美国的TikTok版本也可能意味着世界其他地区必须下载一款新应用程序来访问美国用户的内容。

最重要的是，直到周日，可能至少延续到下周，TikTok用户对该应用程序的未来可能会有更多的问题而不是答案。

How much is TikTok worth?

TikTok’s US assets, without the algorithm, are estimated to be worth between $40 billion and $50 billion, according to Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives.

But since the algorithm may be where much of TikTok’s value lies, putting a firm dollar figure on the company is difficult.

McCourt’s group is not saying publicly how much it offered, although the billionaire previously indicated he valued the assets at around $20 billion.

“We will refrain from publicly sharing the financial specifics of our offer until ByteDance is in a position to review our proposal,” the group said in a statement.

TikTok值多少钱？

韦德布什证券（Wedbush Securities）分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）表示，如果没有算法，TikTok在美国的资产估计价值在400亿至500亿美元之间。

但由于该算法可能是TikTok的大部分价值所在，因此很难对该公司给出确切的美元数字。

麦考特的集团没有公开表示出价多少，尽管这位亿万富翁此前表示，他对这些资产的估值约为200亿美元。

该组织在一份声明中表示：“在字节跳动能够审查我们的提案之前，我们将不会公开分享我们报价的财务细节。”。